What’s Happening Next November?
As the 2024 presidential elections draw closer, the question of who will secure the GOP nomination grows more and more pressing. When asked to rate the current list of candidates' chances of winning, Americans place former President Donald Trump at the forefront, despite facing legal challenges in Florida and New York City and possible future charges connected to his alleged attempts to alter the 2020 election results in Washington and Georgia. These obstacles have raised questions about Trump's path to securing the party's nomination. However, a crowded field of candidates may work in his favor, reducing the likelihood of a one-on-one showdown with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
As of July 2023, perceptions among voters regarding the Republican candidates' likelihood of winning the GOP nomination have evolved. Back in April, Governor DeSantis appeared to be a formidable challenger to Trump. However, recent data indicates that this perceived competition has faded, as voters now see Trump as the most probable candidate to secure the Republican nomination, with an estimated 70% chance of success.
A closer look at changing voter sentiments from June to July reveals an increase in confidence for almost all Republican candidates except for former Vice President Mike Pence and DeSantis, who have experienced somewhat of a stagnation in their perceived likelihood of winning the nomination. The most striking change is in perceptions of Trump's chances of winning, which has seen a substantial surge in the form of a 52% increase in confidence from June to July. Interestingly, this increased confidence in Trump aligns with a considerable increase in donations towards his campaign amid criminal indictments.
As of July, Trump stands out as the candidate with the highest probability of winning the GOP nomination, followed by Governor Ron DeSantis with nearly 40%, and Mike Pence with 28%. Less prominent candidates, such as Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson, Francis Suarez, and Doug Burgu, fall to the bottom of the list and will have to make significant gains in order to be considered seriously for the GOP nomination next June.
When looking just at the voters who cast ballots for Donald Trump in the 2020 elections, the trend is clear: Trump remains the most likely Republican nominee in 2024, by an even more significant margin. Interestingly, these voters believe that Governor Ron DeSantis is viewed as having the next highest likelihood of becoming the chosen Republican candidate, with higher chances of winning compared to the average voter, but is viewed twice as likely as Trump to have a very low, or zero percent chance compared to Trump (11% vs. 6%).
It's clear that it's not only Trump's supporters who believe he has the best chance of securing the nomination, as more than a third of American voters overall believe that the former President has the best chance of winning the GOP nomination. However, there exists another alternative view among 17% of respondents, who assert that another option may be still be in the mix. On the one hand, the fact that more than 3 in 5 Americans give someone other than Trump the best chance of winning is not the best news for the former President. On the other hand, his percentage is more than three times higher than any other current candidate, and “other” enjoys a higher level of potential success than any other candidate besides Trump.
An intriguing aspect of the current political landscape is the lack of disparity in opinions between the average American voter and those who voted for Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential election. When it comes to assessing the chances of various candidates for the GOP nomination, a remarkable consensus seems to prevail among these two groups, except for Trump himself, who stands out above all others, particularly for his 2020 supporters.
Notably, perceptions of the 2024 presidential elections have shifted over the analyzed three-month period. Initially, in May 2023, Joe Biden was viewed as the most likely to win reelection. However, in June, confidence in Biden winning reelection dropped sharply, giving the Republican nominee a 10-point advantage. This has since leveled out, with the GOP nominee holding a 4-point advantage; however, it is clear that Americans overall are not sure about what will happen next November.
Analyzing the viewpoint of different demographic groups further proves that most voters aren't confident in the outcome for next year's elections, as perceptions on who will win the 2024 presidential elections continues to shift. As of July, voters aged 45 or older, those earning less than $80k per year, and those without a college degree believe that the GOP nominee will win next November. Conversely, college-educated individuals and those earning more than $80k per year are more inclined to think President Biden will win reelection.
With over a year to go before the November 2024 election, it is all but certain that this volatility will continue, especially until there is a GOP nominee declared. In the meantime, the team at Trendency will continue to keep an eye on where the mood of the public is and report back on regular intervals.