US vs. Others Part II: Through the Eyes of Millennials and Gen Z
This is Part 2 of an ongoing series; click here to read Part 1.
Over the past two years, Americans have been logging into Trendency to voice their view of how the United States compares to other countries when it comes to measurements around topics such as personal economics, education, and healthcare. While previous reports on the matter have considered a variety of demographic groups based on age, place of residence, and political leanings, this time we’re focusing on the voice of Millennials and GenZ.
The general consensus of Trendency’s research over the past two years is that the United States’ standing has fallen in the eyes of most Americans. Back in March of 2021, we first asked our panelists to allocate points based on if they felt they are better off in the US, or would be better off in another country, based on specific economic, educational, and healthcare indicators. By October of 2022, the impression of the US had fallen in the eyes of Americans across the board, as the average number of points allocated towards being better off in the US dropped for all questions asked. Notably, we observed that younger American adults responded with the most dramatic negative changes.
These younger Americans have grown up in the midst of endless “once-in-century” and “once-in-a-lifetime” events, including 9/11 and the 2008 housing crisis. Throw in some crippling student loan debt, cost of living increases that never seem to end, a global pandemic, and entering the workforce in the time of a rapidly expanding technological landscape and it is not a stretch to see why many are wondering: is this as good as it gets?
Personal Finances
Few would argue against the idea that many Americans have faced financial difficulties in the past few years. But how do Americans measure up their ability to achieve certain economic tasks in their own country, like getting a high paying job, starting a new business, or being able to retire comfortably?
Back in March of 2021, Younger generations tended to feel that the US was in a decent position for getting a high-paying job, with an average allocation of 62 on a scale from 0 to 100 where 100 means they are absolutely better off in the United States and a 0 means that they would definitely be better off in another country. A year and a half later, however, this average dropped 12 points, while other countries gained 17 points. Furthermore, as we can see in the chart to the left, the confidence of Americans under 45 in their ability to get a high-salary job in the US dropped (9 points), more than any other age cohort. While younger Americans still are leaning towards the US as being their best option for a high-paying job, it is teetering right above the 50/50 mark. In contrast, Americans in older generations still firmly see the US as the better option, with their allocations hovering above 60 mark.
Another critical economic metric that we measured is that of being able to start a business. While the overall outlook started similarly to that of being able to get a high-paying job, the change is even more dramatic. While 60% of Americans’ felt that they were better off in the US in 2021, this number dropped 15 points over the next 18 months. Meanwhile, the percent of Americans who feel they would be better off outside of the US went up by 22 points, and now represents a plurality. Interestingly, those who split their points evenly, therefore not indicating preference for one option over the other, reduced by more than half, from 13% down to 6%.
While younger Americans began in close proximity with those of other age cohorts in thinking that the US had the advantage over other countries with starting a new business in 2021, 18 months later this younger cohort dropped well below the 50/50 threshold, with the average allocation falling by 13.5 points. For most people the views on salary is likely a bigger driver, but if our younger generations are looking outside our borders to start a new company it does not bode well for the future economy of the United States. It also points to a place where countries who are trying to grow their economies and populations could focus. It would not be a surprise if more countries follow Canada’s lead and provide a relatively easy path to attracting new companies.
Our final personal economic metric looks towards the ease of retiring and doing so comfortably. This measurement, in particular, received the most negative reaction from younger Americans in 2021, and has only worsened over the last few years. While 1 in 10 Americans under 45 (11%) said that they were 100% better off in the US than any other country, this share of Americans dropped by 3 points over the course of 18 months. Similarly, we saw a 5-point drop in younger Americans leaning strongly towards the US as being the best option in terms of retirement between 2021 and 2022. Conversely, everyone’s feelings towards being better off in another country for retirement increased.
Additionally, we found that the 12% of Americans showing indecision through splitting their votes equally moved towards being better off in other countries, as this category fell by 6 points, and these points were redistributed in the allocation thresholds that lean towards other countries.
In early 2021 a plurality of Millennials and GenZ (49%) felt that they would be better off in the US when it comes to retirement. 4 in 10 were on the side of another country would be a better bet, with a little more than half feeling so strongly. At the end of last year a majority of this cohort now feels that they would be better off somewhere else with two-thirds feeling strongly. Similar to the views on starting a new company, this is problematic to say the least given that there are likely to be more fights over talented individuals as countries look for ways to boost their global competitiveness.
Healthcare
When it comes to healthcare, the general trend mimics that of our economic metrics of the previous section. That is to say, the US is losing its perceived advantage, especially in the eyes of Americans under 45. We divided the questions on healthcare into two indicators of the strength of a country’s healthcare system: quality and affordability. Beginning with the overall impressions of healthcare from panelists of all ages, we see the same downward trend. However, the quality of US healthcare took a much bigger hit, falling 9 points in a year and a half. More than twice the movement of affordability.
Looking specifically at Millennials and GenZ, we see that like all other age groups, they leaned towards the US being the best place to find quality healthcare in 2021, with an average allocation of 55.2. While this was 5.2 points lower than the overall average, it still was solidly over the 50/50 threshold. However, we saw the steepest drop from those under 45 with our most recent data, as it currently sits at 43.6%, a full 11.6 points lower than it was in 2021. Additionally, the current average allocation from Americans under the age of 45 towards the US is now 7.9 points lower than the average of 51.5, which is a wider gap by 2.7 points than it was in 2021.
The affordability of healthcare in the US compared to elsewhere saw a smaller overall drop of 3.7 points from panelists of all ages between 2021 and 2022, breaking down the data by age is more telling. Younger respondents again showed the highest concentration of those losing confidence in the US healthcare system’s affordability, with a drop of 6.2 points and moving from a close to 50/50 split to decidedly leaning towards being better off in another country. By contrast, those between 45 and 64 years of age remained practically split on the matter, but continue to just barely lean towards the US, with a current allocation of 50.4%. Meanwhile, the oldest Americans (65+) have the most confidence in the affordability of US healthcare, and despite a 3.5-point drop, have the highest allocation of 57.3%.
Education
As Millennials and the oldest cohort of Gen-Z have aged out of the K-12 educational system themselves, we focused our attention on the educational prospects for these generations’ children. Specifically, we wanted to know if those under 45 believe that the US is the best place to send their children through K-12 schools, and if it offers the best prospects for sending these children to college. Similar to our last two topics, we are seeing consistent downward trends.
Outlook on the educational system in the US saw some of the steepest drops between March of 2021 and October of 2022. While all age groups began by leaning towards the US as being the best option for a K-12 education, this confidence declined at similar rates. Younger Americans began with an average allocation of 54.6 towards the US and proceeded to fall by 9.1 points. While the lowest starting allocation came from Americans between 45 and 64 (54), their 2022 average allocation was still 1.8 points higher than that of the 18-45 cohort, at 47.3.
Moving to the ability to send kids to college, the price of which has been grossly inflated over the past few decades, we see that, not surprisingly, confidence in the US has fallen even further.
While younger Americans began by leaning towards the US as the best place to send kids to college (57.1) in 2021, we saw a steep drop off by late 2022. This initial allocation fell by 13 points, which now leans away from the US at 44.1. However, younger Americans are clearly not alone in their decline in confidence in the US’ higher education system. While they showed the most dramatic decline, the allocation from Americans 45-64 fell 9.7 points, while that of those over 65 fell 12.8 points.
All in all, it is evident that confidence in US superiority is on the decline. Younger Americans showed the steepest drop offs in allocations favoring the US in the healthcare, educational, and economic sectors. This growing lack of faith in the US raises questions for the two generations that will soon inherit the power in this country. Will we see change in the future? Will we bounce back? Of course, it remains to be seen.