The Role of Disinformation With the War in Ukraine, One Year Later

February 24 marked one year since Russia invaded Ukraine, after weeks of military build-up in Crimea along Ukraine’s eastern border (which was annexed by the Russian government in 2014). These events dominated the news cycles for weeks, especially once the world realized that Ukraine wasn’t backing down.

The fighting is still raging on more than a year later - with Russian advances continuing to stall, according to some sources - but news coverage has dwindled, at least in the United States. This is clear when we look at how much Americans’ attention to the war has waned since this time last year, dropping 20 percentage points since March of 2022.

While more than half of Americans (57%) say they’re still paying attention, this pattern is persistent among every major demographic group we tested. Americans who haven’t received a COVID-19 shot are the only group saying they’re more likely to not be paying attention, which is consistent from a year ago.

Keeping a firm grasp on the attention of American viewers in a 24-hour news cycle is certainly tough, but while the rate of that attention span as slowly decreased, the effects of disinformation have not. Last year, the research team took notice of an alarming, albeit unsurprising trend happening among Americans - particularly those who are part of groups traditionally vulnerable to disinformation campaigns and tactics - that linked disinformation with pro-Russian views.

We found that, back in 2022, misinformation efforts around the world were having a clear effect on the American public, and that is still true today. Indeed, when asked how much of Russia’s decision to invade Ukraine was based on legitimate concerns and how much was based on other factors, more than 80% of the American public believes that there was at least some legitimacy to Russia’s decision, despite the overwhelming opinion from the average American feeling it was mostly based on other reasons. This 2:1 ratio has held steady since March of 2022.

However, these views were not universally held across the board. In fact, when we look at the demographics of those who are most likely to believe that Russia had legitimate reasons for the invasion, we find that the strongest belief of this position is among unvaccinated Americans as well as Black and Hispanic Americans. One year later, Black and Hispanic Americans, as well as those who are unvaccinated, continue to have a different outlook on Russia’s motives.

The connection between vaccination status and pro-Russian views on this conflict is as strong as ever one year into the war. With the exception of Americans under 45 and white college men, Trendency data highlights the trending differences between those are vaccinated against COVID-19 and those who are not, with the latter being more likely to give credence to the concept that Russia had legitimate reasons for invading Ukraine. It’s as true now as it was back in April of 2022.

When it comes to how President Biden has handled the war in Ukraine from the US perspective, the reactions are mixed. However, we continue to see that the same groups who are prone to disinformation campaigns and pro-Russian views are also significantly more disapproving of how the President is handling the situation. This, too, is consistent from a year ago.

Regardless of the differences below the surface, approval of President Biden’s tactics have remained fairly steady, and they’ve actually improved slightly over the past year. The exception, again, is unvaccinated Americans, whose approval has dropped 8 points on average since April of 2022.

Looking at the data from a different angle, disinformation continues to play a key role in Americans’ perception of the eastern European conflict. Vaccination status proves to be a deciding factor in how Americans rate the job the President is doing, with unvaccinated Americans being significantly more likely to rate his job negatively compared to vaccinated Americans. These differences do not exist among other demographic lines, such as age.

At the end of the day, regardless of how much attention is being paid compared to last year, whether Russia had a legitimate reason to create this mess, and who thinks President Biden is doing a good job or poor job handling it from the US perspective, Americans still see reasons for the US to remain involved in the conflict. Why? Global peace, food supplies, and protecting US interests are at the top of the list for the average American.

As we have discussed in past posts, the data points to a coordinated effort in the United States to push the pro-Russian view of the invasion. While the numbers are striking in some specific groups (partisanship and openness to disinformation are important factors), it’s extremely telling that over 80% of Americans feel that Russia had some level of legitimacy for their actions.

Here’s hoping that we won’t have a two year anniversary of the war.