The Effects of the Trump Guilty Verdict

On Thursday of last week (May 30, 2024) former President Donald Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts stemming from his payments to Stormy Daniels leading up to the 2016 election, to cover up his affair with her in 2006. The question on many people’s minds is “what effect will this have on the race?”

Over the next week or so we will be updating our data here on a daily basis to provide a better understanding of how voters are reacting to the news. All of the data below is national data among registered voters. We will also be rolling out swing state data as it becomes available.

The Effect Day 6

Overall, the rematch between President Joe Biden and Former President Trump has remained close for two years running. In the later part of 2022, Biden’s average allocation of support was in the low 40’s with Trump between 27 and 38% average allocation. For those new to our data, we do not ask a binary “who are you going to vote for” but allow our panelists the ability to allocate their support between candidates. This allows for a deeper understanding of the support for a candidate, as well as the ability to measure how the strength of support for each candidate is shifting.

Through 2023 and 2024 Trump’s support has been slowly climbing, while Biden’s support dropped slightly in the second part of 2023 and has been climbing since January of this year. Overall, the support shifted very little in a two way race between Biden (-0.02 points since 5/29) and Trump (+0.02 points) over the first 4 days after the verdict and there has been almost no movement from Monday to Wednesday (Biden +0.01 and Trump +0.0) when the ask is between the two candidates and “other”.

When RFK Jr is included in the horse race, Biden’s support has dropped 0.45 points over the past six days, including a 0.07 point drop over the past two days. Trump’s support in this scenario has increased by 0.09 since Monday and by 1.89 since the verdict.

Zooming in on only the responses given in the last month, Biden continues to hold tight lead nationally. Both candidates have strengthened their position among their current supporters since the verdict. Biden is up 0.03 since the verdict while Trump’s support has grown 0.01.

As a reminder, the 30 day look does not factor in any information from before May 5th, allowing us a clean read on the movement within the audience of registered voters during this time frame. Often times the shorter term look can be more volatile, but not always. If the longer term movement is different than the shorter term then the conclusion is usually that we should expect to see bigger changes on the horizon. If the long term and short term are painting a similar picture, then we are more likely to continue to see patterns hold.

Supporters of Trump and disagreement with the verdict continues to be nearly universal. Among those who disagree with the verdict, 94% are currently supporting Trump, while 4% are supporting RFK Jr (+1 since Monday) and 2% are supporting “Other candidates”. One percent (1%) of those who disagree with the verdict are currently supporting Biden. An increase from zero on Monday.

Among those who support the verdict, 77% are voting for Biden (-3 since Monday), 3% are supporting Trump (+1), 7% RFK Jr (+1), and 10% “Other candidates” (+1).

The last two days have not shown much movement. That being said the small movements have been more positive for Trump than Biden for the most part. We are expecting more peaks and valleys in the days ahead.

The Effect Day 4

Overall, the rematch between President Joe Biden and Former President Trump has remained close for two years running. In the later part of 2022, Biden’s average allocation of support was in the low 40’s with Trump between 27 and 38% average allocation. For those new to our data, we do not ask a binary “who are you going to vote for” but allow our panelists the ability to allocate their support between candidates. This allows for a deeper understanding of the support for a candidate, as well as the ability to measure how the strength of support for each candidate is shifting.

Through 2023 and 2024 Trump’s support has been slowing climbing, while Biden’s support dropped slightly in the second part of 2023 and has been climbing since January of this year. Overall, the support has shifted very little in a two way race between Biden (-0.02 points since 5/29) and Trump (+0.02 points).

However, if RFK Jr is included in the horse race, there is a different shift in the numbers. Over the past 45 days Biden has been holding a steady lead over Trump (about 5 points on average) when RFK Jr. is included in the allocations as well as “Other Candidates”. However since the guilty verdict, Trumps support has increased by 1.8 while Biden’s support dropped by 0.38 points on average. RFK jr.’s support decreased over the past four days by 0.87 points while “Other candidates” increased by 0.03.

Zooming in on the last responses given in just the last month Biden holds a very tight lead nationally with support for both candidates running more in parallel than anything else. This pattern generally points to both candidates strengthening their position among their current supporters. Interestingly the “biggest” bump for Biden and reflexive weakening for Trump (only a 0.03 point movement), was on 5/30, the day before the verdict was reached. Since 5/31 Trump’s support increased by 0.1 while Biden’s increased 0.2.

This 30 day look does not factor in any information from before May 2nd, allowing us a clean read on the movement within the audience of registered voters during this time frame. Often times the shorter term look can be more volatile, but not always. If the longer term movement is different than the shorter term then the conclusion is usually that we should expect to see bigger changes on the horizon. If the long term and short term are painting a similar picture, then we are more likely to continue to see patterns hold.

Given the unprecedented nature of this event we will need to keep a close eye on the data to understand what the road ahead has in store.

Not surprisingly, supporters of Trump and disagreement with the verdict go hand in hand. Over those who disagree with the verdict, 94% are currently supporting Trump, while 3% are supporting RFK Jr and 2% are supporting “Other candidates”. Zero percent (0%) of those who disagree with the verdict are currently supporting Biden. Among those who support the verdict, 80% are voting for Biden, 2% are supporting Trump, 7% RFK Jr and 9% “Other candidates”.

Among those who agree with the verdict, Biden’s support increased after the verdict and then ticked back slightly on Friday, and then held over the weekend. Among those who disagreed with the verdict, Trump’s support spiked 5.76 points after the verdict, increased one more point on Saturday and held steady Sunday and Monday morning.