2024 Post Election Data and Analysis

It will be a while before all of the voter files are updated and available for post-election analysis which will help figure out y what happened on November 5th. In the meantime we will be conducting analysis on our own data and reporting the results here.

The difference between in-person voting versus mail or drop box was staggering

Voters who said that they made up their minds in the last week leaned strongly towards opposing Kamala Harris since she became the likely Democratic nominee.

Among this same group of voters, the support for Trump was very strong going back to late July.

Among voters who said they knew who they were going to vote for three months out from the election, Harris increased her support from late July through August and then the numbers held basically steady. Strong opposition dropped quickly from July 20th to August 4th and then remained steady until Election Day.

Among this same group of voters, support and opposition to Trump’s candidacy barely moved