With just over a month to go before the November election Trendency’s latest panel data shows Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers separated by less than a point on the average, with equally committed bases, evenly split independents, and a wide generational divide.

Trendency’s September data shows Michigan’s U.S. Senate race is effectively tied. Abdul El-Sayed’s average probability of support sits at 46.0%, just ahead of Mike Rogers at 45.2%, with third-party options at 5.1%.

The topline matters less than what sits beneath it. Both candidates have nearly identical shares of voters who say they are 80-100% likely to support them (El-Sayed 42.0%, Rogers 41.9%). Each has overwhelming backing from his own party, and independents split almost exactly down the middle. The sharpest dividing line is age, with younger voters strongly favoring El-Sayed and older voters leaning toward Rogers.

Our approach is not to replicate the horse race, there are plenty of public polls for that, but to paint a picture of what is happening when it comes to the landscape the race is being contested in. Trendency asks respondents to give the percent chance (0-100) that they would vote for each candidate, rather than forcing a single choice. Figures are average probability-of-vote responses, not conventional vote shares, so candidate averages don’t need to sum to 100%. Trendency figures are a cumulative running average, not a series of independent daily polls. External polls are shown for context only and are not combined into an average.

Key takeaways

• A near-tie. El-Sayed leads Rogers 45.96% to 45.15% in average probability of support.
• Convergence. Our running average moved from a 23.3-point Rogers advantage on August 12 to a 0.8-point El-Sayed advantage by September 30, as early noise gave way to a stable read.
• Equal conviction. Both candidates have about 42% of respondents in the highest-commitment band.
• Independents are split. Party loyalty is strong, and independents are nearly even, with a small 3.9-point El-Sayed edge on the crossover vote.
• Age is the biggest divide. Among 18-49 year-olds, El-Sayed leads 68.2% to 26.6%. Among those 50+, Rogers leads 54.7% to 34.5%.
• Most voters aren’t moving. Movement is concentrated in a minority of the panel (23% drifting, 18% churning).
• Public polls agree. Six recent polls show El-Sayed with a small lead or an even race.

Elections are decided at the margins, and understanding who is persuadable and why is where research earns its keep. We’ll be sharing more results as we get closer to the election.