Remember inflation? Sure, you do. It’s the thing that basically got Donald Trump another term in office. It was all the rage during the 2024 campaign (and mostly for good reason, prices were rapidly increasing) but has fallen off the top pedestal since Trump retook the Oval Office. To be clear, inflation is lower than it was during Joe Biden’s four years, but it remains elevated, especially on certain items such as: food and eating out. One of the main potential culprits is, of course, the constant revolving door of Trump Tariffs®. These on-again, off-again, on-again tariffs are at best creating economic uncertainty, at worst setting the stage for an economic downturn. Many economists believe the worst increases in inflation are just around the corner, as companies begin to pass along more costs to consumers. 

At Trendency, however, we aren’t simply going to wait around for economists to be proven right or wrong; we want some answers now, or at the very least want to know what the American public really thinks about inflation and tariffs. So, let’s dive into the numbers.  

Overall Opinion 

Trendency added this question on inflation concern in the summer of 2021. Back then, inflation was already a large part of the national conversation, but that was only the beginning. Throughout 2022, concern increased rapidly, peaking at just under 78 on a scale of 0-100. Just a reminder, or if you are new to Trendency, many of our questions are posed to users on a scale or allocation format. Instead of asking respondents if they are very or somewhat concerned about inflation, we let them assign a numerical value. Since our panelists return to take multiple rounds of question sets, we can track their responses to questions such as this over time, so the movement is not jumping from snapshot to snapshot in time but measuring how the same individuals’ opinions are shifting.  

Currently, inflation concern levels are back where they were in the fall of 2021: elevated but not near the high levels during the peak of late 2022. This graph seems to tell a simple story: inflation concern rises as inflation levels increase, only to drop as inflation cools. Right? Right?? Actually, not really, and it’s not that the first chart is painting a simplified view of a complex issue. 

Everything is Partisan 

Overall, inflation concerns have dropped almost 10 points, on average, since 2022, but it’s definitely not telling the full story. One key missing piece, as with almost anything these days, is partisanship. In this day and age, it would be more unusual if questions tied to economic issues didn’t follow partisan lines. Questions like the direction of country are notorious for rapid shifts based on who the president is. Trendency’s inflation concern question is no different. Just check the trendlines below.

Annually adjusted inflation rates in July 2024 were 2.9%. By February 2025, those rates had dropped all the way to 2.8%; surely, that’s why Republican concern decreased by 34 points. Obvious sarcasm aside, the rapid changes in this chart are familiar to any social scientist or pollster. While it is easy to perhaps have a chuckle at the expense of the average American voter, the truth is not always simple partisan blindness. Trump supporters truly believe their president would solve inflation (even if it was basically already fixed). Their lowered allocations reflect a sense of this optimism. Conversely, Democratic respondents fear the impact Trump and his tariffs might have over renewed inflation, even if the full effects aren’t yet apparent.  

What if we remove partisanship from the equation and look at income levels? One might hypothesize that lower-income Americans (those making less than $75,000), who feel the effects of inflation more acutely, should be allocating higher levels of concern… and you would be correct. 

What we find fascinating is the delta between lower and higher-income respondents (those making more than $75,000). At almost every point in time, lower-income Americans are more concerned about inflation, but differences were much smaller back in 2022, within two points at peak inflation. Now? The delta is about 8 points. Concern levels for lower-income individuals remain almost at their peak, still close to 75/76. For higher-income respondents, their average allocation has dropped by over 10 points.  

Impact of Tariffs 

President Trump came into office with a self-imposed mandate to drive America to unprecedented economic success. With inflation back down to manageable levels and hiring numbers continually strong throughout Biden’s term, he could have just ridden the wave and taken all the credit. That would have been too easy, of course. Instead, Trump unleashed his late-19th-century model of economic success and decided to impose varying tariffs on almost all imported goods. 

We asked our Trendency panelists what they thought of tariffs as an economic engine. For this question, respondents allocated their answers among the two answer options. The table below lists the average response. As a reminder, this doesn’t mean that 62% of Americans think tariffs have a negative impact; it rather should be interpreted as Americans, on average, allocate 62 points to negative impact and 35 points to positive. It’s more a measure of strength, and the ratio of 2:1 shows how Americans view the likely outcome of the approach. 

It appears that President Trump has done a poor job at convincing Americans that his signature economic policy is the right thing for our country. Democrats, not at all surprisingly, are adamant in their negativity. But it’s the other demographic groups that should raise red flags for Trump and Republicans going forward. Independent voters allocate 20 more points to negative impacts, White voters 30 points. Even Republicans, while leaning towards a positive impact, allocate on average just over 40 points towards the negative side.  

Simply put, voters dislike these tariffs and think they will hurt the American economy. 

Who Pays the Tariffs? 

Another argument the Trump administration likes to make about its tariff plan is that foreign nations and foreign companies are the ones footing the bill. Economists and other experts will tell you that it is instead US import companies that pay the initial tariff, passing along a large portion of that tax to the consumers themselves. Who do the American people side with? 

Again, it appears that the Trump Administration has lost this battle. When asked to allocate their responses among the three options, the majority of allocation goes to US customers, with the rest divided among foreign nations and import companies. Every single demographic group, including Republicans, ranks US customers the highest.  

Conclusion 

So where do we go from here? Inflation is not nearly as high as it was during President Biden’s term, but it is increasing again. Economists argue that the true effects of Trump’s tariffs are just beginning to take hold and that inflationary pressures should only start to increase more. Companies that have been eating some of the tariff costs are putting people on notice that those days may soon be over.  

If inflation does keep rising in large part due to tariffs, this data shows who will take the blame: President Trump. Voters are already sour on the impact of his signature economic plan. They don’t believe that tariffs have a positive impact, and they strongly believe customers end up paying the price. President Trump is playing with a short stack in this game. To continue the poker metaphor, he’s gone all in on tariffs, and the American public may be ready to call his bluff.