AI has already thrown our entire world into a whirlwind, changing the way we think about the workforce, our economy, and our personal lives. However, it’s only existed for roughly four years (at least within the public perception), meaning we’ve only experienced the short-term effects of AI. We have no idea what the impact of AI will look like a year from now, let alone a decade from now. That does not mean people are holding off on forming their opinions about the technology, and, in America, it is safe to say AI could use a better PR firm.
Overall views
Overall, 9 in 10 Americans believe that AI will have some sort of effect on our lives, whether it is on the global economy, the US economy, businesses, or themselves personally. Among those who believe AI will have an effect, very few believe the change will be strictly net positive or net negative, with 70 percent believing AI will have some mixed effect overall. For Americans who fall on the extreme ends of the spectrum, just 10% believe AI will have a net positive effect overall, and even fewer (8%) believe the effect will be universally a net negative overall. Interestingly, these numbers don’t change much within different demographic groups, and the overall agreement is that AI’s effects will be positive in some ways and negative in others.
When asked specifically about AI’s effect on the global and US economies, Americans were split on whether the outcome would be net positive, negative, or neutral, although people mostly agreed that the effects on the global vs. the US economy would be the same. In regards to the global economy, 27% believe AI will be a net positive, compared to 28% who think it will be a net negative. One-third (34%) believe it will not have an overall positive or negative effect on the global economy. These percentages are incredibly close to Americans' thoughts regarding AI on the US economy: 29% feel it will be a net positive, 30% a net negative, and 31% feel it will be neither. For both the global and US economies, only around 10% said they were unsure.
Another category Americans were split on is the effect AI will have on the average American, as well as on themselves personally. For the average American, 1 in 4 (26%) said AI will be net positive, and only a slightly higher percentage (30%) said it will be net negative. When asked about themselves personally, there were very similar thoughts, with the exception that net positive was a few points higher than net negative. 29% said net positive, compared to 24% who said net negative. Again, similar to Americans’ thoughts regarding the effect on the global and US economy, the highest percentage belonged to those in the middle, who believe the outcome would be neither positive nor negative, as well as about a final 10% who report they’re unsure of the possible effects.
In general, Americans' thoughts regarding the consequence of AI on American big businesses vs. small businesses are split similarly to thoughts on the global and US economies, with the outcome for big businesses being viewed as having a slightly more positive outlook. For instance, 41% of Americans believe there will be a net positive effect on big businesses, compared to 31% who feel the same about the effect on small businesses. On the other hand, just 19% of Americans believe that AI will have a net negative impact on big businesses, while about one-quarter (26%) feel this will be the case for small businesses. Both big and small businesses had about 30% who believe the effects will be neither positive nor negative, and a remaining 10% who were unsure of the effect AI will have.
The majority of demographic groups fall into this same 30/30/30 split, with the ‘neither positive nor negative effect’ category frequently having the highest percentage. Some demographics do have slight differences, but again, don’t stray far from the 30/30/30 split. One of the more prominent differences can be seen within gender, where men consistently rate AI as net positive much more than women do, and vice versa for women rating negative more frequently than men.
When examining age, those under the age of 45 are more likely to believe AI will have a net positive outcome compared to older Americans, with the vice versa being true for the net negative. Interestingly enough, however, within the two generations under 45, Millennials and Gen Z, Millennials rate AI as net positive much more frequently than Gen Z does. Gen Z consistently has the second-highest percentage, but Millennials still top them for most optimistic regarding the effects of AI.
Another main demographic that doesn’t follow the even split is, of course, everyone's favorite, partisanship. Republicans tend to rate AI as net positive much more than Democrats do, and interestingly enough, Independents often have the lowest percentages of net positive out of all three. This divide is particularly evident when asking about specific effects, such as the US economy (12% difference), US big and small businesses (7% difference for both), and the impact on the average American (11% difference).
Regulation of AI
A big topic around AI is how much regulation can, and should, be put on the companies and the models they are releasing to the public. In the US, we could not update regulations on the internet and social media for over a decade, so we won’t be holding our breath on any comprehensive or thoughtful regulation coming out of Washington, DC, but the American public is clear on the overall approach they would like to see.
If you listen to the extreme arguments, we either need to stop AI development in its tracks or we need to get out of the way completely, or else China will win. Not surprisingly, the vast majority of Americans live somewhere in between these two extremes. When asked what percent of the focus should be on creating rules and regulations on AI companies and their products, and what percent of the focus should be on ensuring that the US-based AI companies have the best chance to succeed, the average answer was:
55% of the focus should be on rules and regulations, and 45% of the focus should be on ensuring a positive outcome for US companies.
A majority (55%) of Americans are in the middle of the two options, falling somewhere between a 60-40 and 40-60 split on the two approach options. Despite this majority being in the middle, however, more Americans lean towards rules and regulations rather than the success of US companies. One-third of Americans (33%) feel there should be more focus on rules and regulations, including 15% who feel 80% or more of the focus should be on rules and regulations. On the opposite end of the spectrum, 12% feel there should be more focus on the success of US companies, including just 3% who feel this should be the vast majority of the focus.
There are small differences in these views when we look at different demographics, but there are almost no differences that rise to the level of being statistically significant. Even Harris and Trump voters basically agree on this question, with 30% of Trump voters wanting a majority of the focus to be on rules and regulations, while 37% of Harris voters agree. Only 17% of Trump voters want the majority of the focus to be on US companies succeeding, with 10% of Harris voters agreeing. Just over half of both Trump voters (53%) and Harris voters (52%) are looking for a balanced approach between the two.
AI use also has very little effect on this viewpoint. A majority of daily users (55%) are looking for a balanced approach, while 32% feel there should be more focus on regulation, and 14% feel it should be about the success of US companies. For non-daily users, 55% are looking for a balanced approach, 32% want more focus on regulation, and 10% feel the focus should be on the success of companies. There is even very little difference between those who view the outlook of AI as positive for them personally and those who feel it will be a net negative, or those who feel it will have neither a positive nor a negative impact.
Concluding Thoughts
All in all, Americans believe AI is here to stay and will definitely have a significant impact on our world. Americans are mostly split over whether that impact will help or hurt our country in the long run, with various demographics leaning more towards one side or the other. Americans are also looking for balance in how we should regulate AI in the future, with very few looking for the focus to be solely on helping US companies succeed. One thing is for certain, we can’t go back to the way things used to be; how we will progress forward, however, remains uncertain, and with AI growing increasingly more present in our lives will soon have to confront the reality of this new digital age.
What is also clear is that the AI is not enjoying a honeymoon period, the way in which other new technologies have. As discussed in our previous piece, the companies leading the charge are mostly viewed in a very negative light, and the companies have done very little to show how this technology will help the average person. Cutting jobs and increasing productivity is an argument for people at the top rungs of companies, not the average person. We also see the fights over the building of data centers, where companies such as Amazon, Meta, and SpaceX/xAI are trying to build as quickly as possible and putting little to no effort into building goodwill in the communities that would house these centers.
Tech companies have had a bit of a blank check for two decades now; the data points to that viewpoint coming to an end.
