Scandinavian elections might not be at the top of your list of “things I pay close attention to,” but given the general upending of the global world order, we find it interesting to see how other countries are viewing changes in the US and the effect that President Trump is having around the globe. In Canada this past April, President Trump clearly changed the dynamic of the race, and not in the way that the conservative parties would have liked. In Norway, we are seeing a similar trend, but the effect is not quite as pronounced given the more robust party system in the Land of the Midnight Sun.
In quick summary: In 2021, the Labour Party won the most seats in the Storting (Norway’s unicameral parliament) and took back power from the Conservative Party, which had been the lead party for eight years. Currently, the coalition government includes the Labour Party (48 seats), the Socialist Left (13 seats), and the Centre Party (formerly the Farmers Party) with 28 seats.
The opposition is between the Conservative Party, a more classic center-right party and the Progress Party, a right-wing nationalist party. The Conservative Party currently has 36 seats, while the Progress Party has 20 seats. Current projections predict the Labour Party will get between 47 and 53 seats, while the Conservative Party will get between 24 and 29 seats, and the Progress Party between 36 and 44 seats.
While we can’t say that the changes in the US government were the only cause of these shifts, it is hard to imagine that it wasn’t a big part of the changes, similar to what we saw in Canada. The election is expected to be close, and we will have to wait and see where the final seat totals end up. Regardless, it seems safe to predict that either side will need a fairly large number of parties to hit the number needed to govern.
Here are the key takeaways from this week’s chart:
Labour is in the Lead… For Now: The Labour Party is currently projected as the likely coalition winner, but this was not always the case. In fact, from September 2024 through early February of this year, the conservative bloc was the predicted winner of the most seats. The numbers waffled back and forth for a couple of months, but the Labour bloc has been the predicted winner since May. 
Right vs. Far Right: Support for the Progress Party, generally considered to be far right, increased through the fall of 2024 and peaked in late 2024. Support began dropping in January of this year and continued to generally drop through April. They then enjoyed a rebound compared to their conservative competition, but this has been dropping steadily over the last month or so. They currently still lead the Conservative Party, but it is close. 
Coalition Dynamics: Assuming the Conservative Party and the Progress Party would form a coalition, the right-leaning bloc was predicted last fall to win 45 seats, while the ruling coalition was expected to win 35 seats. This dynamic held relatively steady until late January, when the prospects of the ruling coalition started improving, and they have been holding a slight lead since May.
