Earlier this month, a ceasefire agreement was announced between Israel and Hamas that could potentially end the war in Gaza. The deal involves multiple phases, with the first phase focused on the release of hostages and prisoners. Later phases include the disarmament of Hamas, the rebuilding of Gaza, and the establishment of a new government (among other things). So far, the two sides have not been in total agreement, although there is still currently an agreement to keep moving forward with the process. 

History tells us that this will not be easy, and most Americans are skeptical if the ceasefire will last. Overall, Americans give it a 38% chance of holding, which is not exactly a resounding feeling of optimism. Black Americans, fans of the president, and Republicans are the three groups who feel that the chances are better than 50/50, while White Americans, Independents, and Democrats are more pessimistic than most. 

Let’s hope that the optimists have it right.  

Here are the key takeaways from this week’s chart:

• 👵👨‍💼👩‍🎓Age has very little effect: Given the history of peace attempts in the past, you might think that those who have been around longer might be more pessimistic, but that’s not the case. Americans aged 45-64 are the most pessimistic, but their average score is 1.15 points lower than the most optimistic (those aged 65 or older).
• ⬆️⬇️⬅️Opinions are dispersed to a point: When looking at the breakdown of the views Americans hold, it is clear that there is a range of views bubbling under the surface of the average scores. Just under one-third of Americans (32.4%) say there’s less than a 20% chance the ceasefire will last. At the same time, one-quarter (24.3%) feel the chances are around 50/50 (they feel there is a 40-59% chance of success). The smallest group by far is those who are nearly positive the ceasefire will hold (80-100%); just 8% fall into this category. 
• 📉The trend is not up and to the right: When we started asking this question on October 10th, the average score was 42.74%. Since then, there has been a steady daily downward trend in the numbers to the current 38.85%.