On Monday, Canadians voted in their new parliament, and while the results were not surprising based on the information available leading up to Election Day, they were completely shocking based on how the numbers looked at the beginning of the year. The Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, currently won 169 seats in the Parliament, three seats short of a majority. The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, also increased its number of seats from 2021, currently holding 144 seats (a gain of 25 seats). The Conservative loss was especially hard for Poilievre, who lost his seat (aka riding) in the election. The Liberal Party will need to form a coalition to pass legislation, which will likely come from the New Democrats and the lone Green member. 

According to the Canadian Broadcasting Company, the Liberal Party was likely to end up with somewhere between 161 and 204 seats, while the Conservatives were expected to end up between 111 and 146 based on their final projections. This is a huge shift from their projections back in January, when they projected the Liberal Party would win between 29 and 57 seats and the Conservative Party would win somewhere between 206 and 244.

Here are the key takeaways from this week’s chart:

• 👍Overall? A Good Day for the Two Main Parties: Both parties increased their number of seats from the last election and increased their overall share of the vote. The Conservative Party had a larger increase in the number of seats (25 vs. 9), but the Liberal Party had the bigger gain in the overall vote (an 11.1% growth vs. 7.5%).
• 👎A Bad Night for the Smaller Parties: The growth of the two main parties came at the expense of the smaller parties, both in seats and overall vote share. The New Democratic Party (NDP) had the worst night, losing 18 seats and 11.5 percentage points. Bloc Québécois lost 1.4% in the overall results, which ended up costing them 10 seats. 
• 🗺️The First Prime Minister from a Territory: Soon-to-be Prime Minister Carney will be the first prime minister born in any of Canada’s Territories (vs. the provinces) and only the third born west of Ontario.